Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Sep 26?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 68° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 80° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 76° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 68° | 82° | 90° | — | 86° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 73° | 71° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 71° | 84° | 79° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 79° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 68° | 78° | 81° | — | 70° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 82° | 83° | 79° | 82° | 85° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 77° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 71° | — | 71–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 77° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 84° | 78° | 77–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 86° | 82° | 77° | 77–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 79° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 84° | 84° | 77° | 75–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 78° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 85° | 81° | 79° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 78° | 78–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 79° | 77° | 78° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 78° | 77–82° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.