Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 24?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 68° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 81° against the SLC observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 84° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 77° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 72° | 66° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 82° | 74° | 85° | — | 84° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 85° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 67° | 81° | 77° | — | 85° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 85° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 81° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 78° | 84° | 81° | 85° | 83° | — | 78–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 82° | 79° | 84° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 80° | 79–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 78° | 78° | 79° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 83° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 77° | 74° | 73° | 83° | 79° | 81° | 73–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 77° | 77° | 77° | 75° | 82° | 79° | 80° | 75–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 78° | 77° | 78° | 76° | 81° | 79° | 78° | 76–81° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.