Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Sep 22?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 64° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 76° against the SLC observations, with 0.25 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 66° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 64° | 69° | 84° | — | 79° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 78° | 78° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 77° | 68° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 83° | 87° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 81° | 73° | 79° | — | 75° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 76° | 82° | 79° | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 83° | — | 76–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 72° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 78° | 75° | 72–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 69° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 75° | 75° | 69–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 70° | 77° | 77° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 75° | 70–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 71° | 67–79° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 72° | 68° | 73° | 78° | 75° | 75° | 67–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 76° | 75° | 74° | 66–76° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.