Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Sep 21?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 72° to 86°;by the call made on the day itself the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 78° against the SLC observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 69° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 72° | 81° | 73° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 82° | 84° | — | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 81° | 82° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 85° | 71° | 84° | — | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 72° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 75° | 89° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 75° | 79° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 79° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 82° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 74° | 81° | 75° | 81° | 78° | 75° | 74–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 76° | 75° | 79° | 74° | 82° | 78° | 77° | 74–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 77° | 74° | 79° | 74° | 81° | 80° | 77° | 74–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 75° | 80° | 76° | 81° | 77° | 81° | 75–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 76° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 79° | 75–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 75–79° |
| 0d · 2026-09-21 | 74° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 74–79° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.