Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Sep 20?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 72° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 72° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 80° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 74° | 72° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 76° | 79° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 83° | 78° | 80° | — | 83° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 71° | 88° | 80° | — | 89° | — | — | 71–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 85° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 77° | 84° | 79° | 73° | 90° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 81° | 84° | 87° | 83° | 85° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 73° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 74° | 83° | 77° | 78° | 76° | 71° | 71–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 73° | 78° | 73° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 72–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 73° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 76° | 73° | 73° | 71–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 72° | 71° | 73° | 70° | 74° | 70° | 70° | 70–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 71° | 73° | 69° | 75° | 73° | 72° | 69–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 69° | 72° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 71° | 69–72° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 70° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 70–71° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.