Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 17?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 78° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 86° against the SLC observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 87° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 81° | 80° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 81° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 82° | 92° | — | 90° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 83° | 93° | — | 84° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 86° | 78° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 64° | 65° | 86° | 83° | 87° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 71° | 87° | 79° | 83° | — | — | 71–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 81° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 84° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 84° | 84–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 85° | 78° | 82° | 78–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 80–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 80–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 81° | 83° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 80–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 83° | 82° | 81–85° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.