Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Sep 16?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 78° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the SLC observations — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. UKMO ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 86° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 86–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 87° | 81° | 87° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 87° | 88° | 76° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 88° | 87° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 86° | 85° | 92° | — | 88° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 76° | 90° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 77° | 84° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 82° | 78° | 81° | 78° | 89° | 86° | 80° | 78–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 86° | 77° | 87° | 87° | 83° | 78° | 84° | 77–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 84° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 80° | 83° | 79–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 85° | 83° | 86° | 91° | 86° | 83° | 83–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 89° | 85° | 85° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 84° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 82–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 85° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 83° | 83–87° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.