The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Sep 13?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 73° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 93° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 7° cold.

14 days out the models said 73–92; it hit 93. GFS led (off 1.1°F); GEM ran 7°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-29 88° 88° 88–88°
14d · 2026-08-30 73° 84° 85° 92° 73–92°
13d · 2026-08-31 80° 82° 72° 84° 72–84°
12d · 2026-09-01 78° 77° 64° 79° 64–79°
11d · 2026-09-02 72° 80° 87° 81° 72–87°
10d · 2026-09-03 89° 72° 80° 64° 64–89°
9d · 2026-09-04 84° 85° 89° 82° 74° 74–89°
8d · 2026-09-05 68° 68° 80° 92° 67° 67–92°
7d · 2026-09-06 92° 88° 73° 87° 65° 65–92°
6d · 2026-09-07 87° 90° 76° 92° 72° 88° 83° 72–92°
5d · 2026-09-08 79° 90° 69° 82° 75° 79° 68° 68–90°
4d · 2026-09-09 91° 85° 80° 90° 80° 78° 81° 78–91°
3d · 2026-09-10 87° 88° 79° 79° 82° 79° 81° 79–88°
2d · 2026-09-11 88° 87° 84° 89° 91° 86° 82° 82–91°
1d · 2026-09-12 90° 90° 89° 83° 92° 89° 87° 83–92°
0d · 2026-09-13 90° 89° 88° 86° 92° 91° 88° 86–92°
actual 93°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.