Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Sep 9?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 70° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 85° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 70° | 75° | 88° | — | 75° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 78° | 91° | — | 82° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 95° | 85° | — | 94° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 76° | 78° | 82° | — | 96° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 81° | 72° | — | 85° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 73° | 73° | 77° | 63° | 76° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 77° | 87° | 65° | 77° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 90° | 84° | — | 82–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 85° | 87° | 89° | 77° | 94° | 91° | 73° | 73–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 82° | 88° | 82° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 82–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 81° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 81–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 81° | 86° | 82° | 86° | 85° | 83° | 81–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 83° | 80° | 85° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 80–84° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.