The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Sep 9?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 67° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 85° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 67–88; it hit 85. GEM led (off 1.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 86° 87° 86–87°
14d · 2026-08-26 67° 84° 88° 82° 67–88°
13d · 2026-08-27 87° 90° 91° 82° 82–91°
12d · 2026-08-28 90° 85° 85° 84° 84–90°
11d · 2026-08-29 76° 68° 82° 94° 68–94°
10d · 2026-08-30 91° 82° 72° 90° 72–91°
9d · 2026-08-31 81° 71° 77° 63° 92° 63–92°
8d · 2026-09-01 82° 76° 87° 65° 84° 65–87°
7d · 2026-09-02 85° 84° 86° 87° 91° 84–91°
6d · 2026-09-03 84° 84° 89° 77° 81° 78° 73° 73–89°
5d · 2026-09-04 83° 80° 85° 82° 89° 86° 85° 80–89°
4d · 2026-09-05 83° 80° 87° 82° 84° 83° 85° 80–87°
3d · 2026-09-06 83° 81° 84° 82° 86° 82° 83° 81–86°
2d · 2026-09-07 83° 81° 85° 81° 84° 86° 83° 81–86°
1d · 2026-09-08 83° 80° 85° 82° 82° 83° 83° 80–85°
0d · 2026-09-09 82° 81° 83° 83° 82° 83° 82° 81–83°
actual 85°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.