Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Sep 7?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 80° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 77° against the SLC observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | 78° | 82° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 84° | 92° | — | 82° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 80° | 92° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 71° | 74° | 81° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 79° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 79° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 81° | 78° | 82° | 85° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 74° | 83° | 86° | 73° | 80° | 70° | — | 70–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 76° | 81° | 71° | 70° | 77° | 69° | 69–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 71° | 70° | 73° | 84° | 69° | 78° | 69–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 80° | 69° | 76° | 69–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 73° | 70° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 77° | 70–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 72° | 75° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 72–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 73° | 73–76° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.