Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Sep 6?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 59° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the SLC observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | 87° | 88° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 86–88° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 80° | 84° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–84° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 78° | 79° | 91° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 72° | 91° | — | 93° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 61° | 63° | 85° | — | 68° | — | — | 61–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 73° | 65° | 91° | — | 90° | — | — | 65–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 73° | 83° | 76° | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 91° | 76° | 87° | 89° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 76° | 86° | 87° | 84° | 74° | — | 74–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 78° | 78° | 85° | 86° | 78–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 80° | 86° | 76° | 76–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 80° | 87° | 79° | 83° | 85° | 84° | 79–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 89° | 80° | 76° | 76–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 82° | 85° | 87° | 83° | 82° | 87° | 82–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 86° | 82° | 82–88° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.