The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 3?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 73° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 73–88; it hit 87. GFS led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-08-20 81° 85° 88° 73° 73–88°
13d · 2026-08-21 78° 94° 92° 95° 78–95°
12d · 2026-08-22 83° 87° 96° 99° 83–99°
11d · 2026-08-23 74° 76° 87° 92° 74–92°
10d · 2026-08-24 79° 78° 82° 83° 78–83°
9d · 2026-08-25 76° 77° 84° 78° 77° 76–84°
8d · 2026-08-26 72° 78° 88° 71° 89° 71–89°
7d · 2026-08-27 88° 70° 84° 78° 87° 70–88°
6d · 2026-08-28 88° 78° 88° 85° 90° 83° 81° 78–90°
5d · 2026-08-29 83° 90° 85° 83° 89° 81° 78° 78–90°
4d · 2026-08-30 84° 88° 87° 83° 88° 82° 79° 79–88°
3d · 2026-08-31 84° 86° 80° 84° 87° 85° 76° 76–87°
2d · 2026-09-01 83° 86° 85° 84° 88° 85° 82° 82–88°
1d · 2026-09-02 85° 87° 85° 84° 87° 84° 84° 84–87°
0d · 2026-09-03 86° 85° 85° 85° 86° 86° 85° 85–86°
actual 87°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.