Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 3?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 88° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 88° | 90° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 87° | 87° | 92° | — | 96° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 75° | 90° | 96° | — | 85° | — | — | 75–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 87° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 70° | 71° | 82° | — | 87° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 71° | 80° | 84° | 78° | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 67° | 72° | 88° | 71° | 83° | — | — | 67–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 78° | 84° | 78° | 90° | 83° | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 89° | 88° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 81° | 81–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 89° | 85° | 83° | 90° | 86° | 78° | 78–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 88° | 87° | 83° | 88° | 88° | 79° | 79–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 76° | 76–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 82° | 82–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 84° | 84–86° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.