The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Sep 2?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

13 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 79° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the SLC observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 79–91; it hit 87. GFS led (off 1.0°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
13d · 2026-08-20 88° 89° 79° 91° 79–91°
12d · 2026-08-21 91° 89° 84° 100° 84–100°
11d · 2026-08-22 82° 91° 94° 94° 82–94°
10d · 2026-08-23 76° 88° 86° 91° 76–91°
9d · 2026-08-24 82° 82° 85° 83° 84° 82–85°
8d · 2026-08-25 75° 80° 88° 81° 81° 75–88°
7d · 2026-08-26 80° 84° 83° 81° 89° 80–89°
6d · 2026-08-27 84° 89° 81° 81° 79° 83° 80° 79–89°
5d · 2026-08-28 84° 78° 85° 84° 80° 81° 76° 76–85°
4d · 2026-08-29 80° 82° 85° 80° 86° 82° 74° 74–86°
3d · 2026-08-30 80° 85° 84° 83° 87° 82° 75° 75–87°
2d · 2026-08-31 82° 86° 84° 83° 85° 82° 82° 82–86°
1d · 2026-09-01 82° 85° 84° 83° 86° 84° 82° 82–86°
0d · 2026-09-02 83° 85° 85° 85° 86° 85° 84° 83–86°
actual 87°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.