Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 31?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
11 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 79° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 87° against the SLC observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 79° | 81° | 96° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 86° | 83° | 95° | — | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 70° | 78° | 97° | 82° | 95° | — | — | 70–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 77° | 79° | 94° | 78° | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 76° | 80° | 89° | 76° | 94° | 85° | — | 76–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 74° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 90° | 80° | 85° | 74–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 87° | 84° | 86° | 80–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 88° | 81° | 87° | 78–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 87° | 77° | 81° | 77–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 77° | 82° | 78° | 85° | 89° | 80° | 84° | 77–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 81° | 80° | 86° | 89° | 85° | 84° | 77–89° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.