Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 30?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
10 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 77° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the SLC observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-20 | 77° | 81° | 91° | — | 98° | — | — | 77–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 86° | 86° | 93° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 84° | 92° | 82° | 91° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 78° | 77° | 88° | 84° | 86° | 71° | — | 71–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 78° | 84° | 87° | 79° | 87° | 84° | 80° | 78–87° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 80° | 82° | 75° | 86° | 77° | 79° | 75–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 76° | 79° | 69° | 78° | 82° | 75° | 83° | 69–83° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 74° | 79° | 75° | 75° | 82° | 71° | 78° | 71–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 75° | 79° | 74° | 77° | 81° | 75° | 81° | 74–81° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 76° | 80° | 73° | 78° | 83° | 75° | 80° | 73–83° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.