Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Aug 27?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
7 days out, 6 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 90° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 97° against the SLC observations, with 0.18 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.3°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-20 | 90° | 90° | 96° | 92° | 97° | 90° | — | 90–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 94° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 91–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 92° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 95° | 95° | 92–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 94° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 93° | 92–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 94° | 93° | 95° | 96° | 99° | 95° | 94° | 93–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 96° | 99° | 96° | 94° | 93–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 99° | 95° | 92° | 91–99° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.