Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 17?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 78° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 79° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 78° | 88° | 95° | — | 97° | — | — | 78–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 77° | 78° | 96° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 75° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 81° | 94° | — | 89° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 89° | 80° | 91° | — | 94° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 89° | 76° | 82° | 88° | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 89° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 86° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 89° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 90° | — | 89–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 89° | 91° | 94° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 89–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 91° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 94° | 89° | 90° | 89–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 90° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 88° | 88–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 96° | 93° | 90° | 90–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 93° | 92° | 91° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 90° | 90–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 93° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 91° | 91–97° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.