Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 15?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 80° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 83° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 83° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 80° | 92° | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 83° | 81° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 90° | 94° | — | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 75° | 79° | 93° | — | 97° | — | — | 75–97° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 76° | 80° | 85° | — | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 80° | 96° | 78° | 101° | — | — | 78–101° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 75° | 78° | 89° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 93° | 86° | — | 78–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 83° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 85° | 86° | 83–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 84° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 93° | 85° | 87° | 84–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 83° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 91° | 84° | 85° | 83–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 83° | 84° | 80° | 87° | 90° | 84° | 84° | 80–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 82° | 84° | 80° | 85° | 88° | 83° | 84° | 80–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 83° | 84° | 81° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 81–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.