Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 8?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 92° to 104°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-24 | 93° | 85° | — | — | 99° | — | — | 85–99° |
| 14d · 2026-07-25 | 92° | 93° | 100° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 13d · 2026-07-26 | 96° | 98° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 96–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-27 | 95° | 94° | 105° | — | 94° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 11d · 2026-07-28 | 99° | 94° | 98° | — | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 10d · 2026-07-29 | 99° | 96° | 101° | — | 98° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 9d · 2026-07-30 | 94° | 96° | 102° | 94° | 100° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-31 | 93° | 97° | 104° | 96° | 103° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 99° | 103° | 98° | 105° | 104° | — | 98–105° |
| 6d · 2026-08-02 | 100° | 99° | 104° | 97° | 104° | 100° | 101° | 97–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-03 | 99° | 100° | 106° | 97° | 104° | 101° | 104° | 97–106° |
| 4d · 2026-08-04 | 99° | 100° | 104° | 101° | 105° | 99° | 102° | 99–105° |
| 3d · 2026-08-05 | 98° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 104° | 99° | 101° | 98–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-06 | 98° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 101° | 99° | 100° | 98–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-07 | 98° | 100° | 101° | 99° | 102° | 102° | 99° | 98–102° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.