Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Aug 4?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 99° to 105°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-20 | — | 90° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 14d · 2026-07-21 | 99° | 101° | 103° | — | 105° | — | — | 99–105° |
| 13d · 2026-07-22 | 98° | 87° | 108° | — | 99° | — | — | 87–108° |
| 12d · 2026-07-23 | 99° | 90° | 105° | — | 108° | — | — | 90–108° |
| 11d · 2026-07-24 | 94° | 96° | 103° | — | 103° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 95° | 97° | 102° | — | 103° | — | — | 95–103° |
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 91° | 98° | 98° | 95° | 98° | — | — | 91–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 96° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 103° | — | — | 96–103° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 89° | 101° | 95° | 90° | 98° | — | 89–101° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 89° | 95° | 92° | 98° | 91° | 100° | 89–100° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 86° | 95° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 94° | 86–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 87° | 93° | 88° | 92° | 90° | 93° | 87–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 92° | 87–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 89° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 88–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.