Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 3?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 83° to 105°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-19 | — | 98° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 98–102° |
| 14d · 2026-07-20 | 93° | 83° | 101° | — | 105° | — | — | 83–105° |
| 13d · 2026-07-21 | 99° | 100° | 99° | — | 98° | — | — | 98–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-22 | 100° | 87° | 106° | — | 89° | — | — | 87–106° |
| 11d · 2026-07-23 | 97° | 92° | 106° | — | 106° | — | — | 92–106° |
| 10d · 2026-07-24 | 95° | 92° | 104° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 9d · 2026-07-25 | 94° | 96° | 99° | 86° | 100° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 89° | 96° | 97° | 98° | 105° | — | — | 89–105° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 95° | 96° | 93° | 99° | 88° | — | 88–99° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 94° | 97° | 92° | 99° | 92° | 93° | 90–99° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 92° | 92° | 97° | 93° | 100° | 94° | 97° | 92–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 91° | 92° | 95° | 90° | 98° | 89° | 95° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 93° | 89° | 94° | 89–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 89° | 93° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 89–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 89° | 88–91° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.