Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sun Oct 25?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 74° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 83° against the PHX observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 2.3°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 81° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 88° | 76° | 86° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 84° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 84–87° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 85° | 77° | 70° | — | 81° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 83° | 81° | 82° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–83° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 75° | 79° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 82° | 81° | 88° | 80° | 78° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 81° | 81° | 92° | 78° | 84° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 79° | 84° | 87° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 79° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 87° | 84° | 85° | 78–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 74–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 79° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 77° | 77–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 79° | 80° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 77–80° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 80° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 78–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 81° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 78–81° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.