Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Wed Oct 21?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 76° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 92° against the PHX observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 3.3°. AIFS ran 12° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 91° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 88° | 76° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 92° | 78° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 90° | 88° | 87° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 89° | 89° | — | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 76° | 74° | 81° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 78° | 91° | 89° | 71° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 76° | 70° | 72° | 77° | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 86° | 73° | 84° | 84° | 77° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 78° | 70° | 88° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 77° | 70–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 76° | 88° | 81° | 78° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 76–90° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 87° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 82° | 82–91° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 85° | 82° | 84° | 77° | 83° | 80° | 84° | 77–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 83° | 83° | 86° | 91° | 84° | 88° | 90° | 83–91° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 80° | 82° | 82° | 89° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 80–89° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.