Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sun Oct 18?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 84° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the PHX observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.9°. ICON ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 81° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 81–84° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 84° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 93° | 85° | — | 89° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 93° | 94° | 86° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 81° | 86° | 89° | — | 87° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 91° | 86° | 88° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 92° | 85° | 91° | 90° | 81° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 90° | 88° | 89° | 85° | 84° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 86° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 84° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 84° | 90° | 89° | 85° | 87° | 89° | 84–90° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 87° | 87° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 83–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 84° | 86° | 74° | 87° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 74–87° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 83° | 78° | 81° | 86° | 78° | 81° | 85° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 77° | 73° | 79° | 89° | 78° | 72° | 88° | 72–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 89° | 80° | 76° | 86° | 76–89° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.