Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Oct 16?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 88° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 87° against the PHX observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 82° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 82–83° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 92° | 88° | 93° | — | 101° | — | — | 88–101° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 87° | 86° | 88° | — | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 84° | 87° | 80° | — | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 89° | 92° | 85° | — | 89° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 94° | 93° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 78° | 76° | 85° | 88° | 82° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 95° | 80° | 88° | 88° | 81° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 93° | 85° | 89° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 88° | 90° | 84° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 79° | 79–90° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 86° | 78–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 84° | 86° | 84° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 84–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 87° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 85–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 88° | 85° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 85–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 89° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 86–89° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.