Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Tue Oct 13?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 91° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 78° against the PHX observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 84° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 99° | 96° | 91° | — | 91° | — | — | 91–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 88° | 88° | 88° | — | 97° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 97° | 98° | 94° | — | 95° | — | — | 94–98° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 78° | 80° | 81° | — | 96° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 78° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 89° | 76° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 80° | 82° | 73° | 80° | 78° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 82° | 76° | 73° | 84° | 89° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 78° | 77° | 74° | 76° | 82° | 77° | 80° | 74–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 72° | 72° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 72–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 76° | 74–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 74° | 75° | 73° | 79° | 79° | 77° | 73–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 76° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 77° | 76–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 77° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 77–80° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.