Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sun Oct 11?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 94° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the PHX observations, with 0.26 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.8°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 91° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 91–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 99° | 95° | 100° | — | 94° | — | — | 94–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 102° | 96° | 97° | — | 94° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 99° | 94° | 97° | — | 91° | — | — | 91–99° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 93° | 98° | — | 96° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 95° | 96° | 100° | — | 95° | — | — | 95–100° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 88° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 95° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 86° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 96° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 87° | 96° | 94° | 97° | 94° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 82° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 95° | 99° | 82–99° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 85° | 88° | 91° | 93° | 84° | 94° | 84–94° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 83° | 87° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 77° | 88° | 77–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 85° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 85–89° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 84° | 84° | 90° | 87° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 84–90° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 84° | 84° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 84–87° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.