Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Oct 8?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 72° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 104° against the PHX observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 97° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 97–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 99° | 72° | 98° | — | 92° | — | — | 72–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 101° | 92° | 84° | — | 98° | — | — | 84–101° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 100° | 96° | 99° | — | 98° | — | — | 96–100° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 103° | 98° | 99° | — | 96° | — | — | 96–103° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 103° | 94° | 102° | — | 101° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 102° | 97° | 102° | 80° | 95° | — | — | 80–102° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 101° | 96° | 102° | 96° | 98° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 101° | 100° | 102° | 96° | 102° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 100° | 99° | 102° | 99° | 101° | 98° | 102° | 98–102° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 101° | 97° | 102° | 101° | 98° | 98° | 101° | 97–102° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 101° | 99° | 103° | 101° | 99° | 99° | 101° | 99–103° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 103° | 99° | 104° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 99–104° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 103° | 99° | 104° | 100° | 100° | 99° | 102° | 99–104° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 103° | 99° | 104° | 100° | 100° | 101° | 101° | 99–104° |
| actual | 104° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.