Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sun Oct 4?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 95° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 99° against the PHX observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 89° | — | — | 103° | — | — | 89–103° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 95° | 98° | 102° | — | 99° | — | — | 95–102° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 94° | 95° | 103° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–103° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 100° | 97° | 97° | — | 103° | — | — | 97–103° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 96° | 97° | 100° | — | 92° | — | — | 92–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 98° | 93° | 102° | — | 99° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 98° | 84° | 94° | 95° | 89° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 97° | 100° | 99° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 97–104° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 98° | 99° | 97° | 96° | 96° | — | — | 96–99° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 97° | 97° | 93° | 96° | 99° | 96° | 100° | 93–100° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 97° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 94–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 97° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 95° | 96° | 95–98° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 98° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 98° | 95–98° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 98° | 96° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 95° | 99° | 95–99° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 99° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 99° | 95–99° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.