Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Oct 1?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 86° to 105°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 95° against the PHX observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.9°. ECMWF ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 101° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 101–102° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 98° | 86° | 100° | — | 105° | — | — | 86–105° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 98° | 98° | 102° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 99° | 101° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 97–101° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 86° | 89° | 103° | — | 90° | — | — | 86–103° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 103° | 92° | 97° | — | 101° | — | — | 92–103° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 103° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 94° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 84° | 94° | 98° | 90° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 88° | 89° | 87° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 91° | 89° | 82° | 94° | 94° | 86° | 90° | 82–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 94° | 87° | 93° | 87–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 89° | 92° | 86° | 92° | 95° | 93° | 90° | 86–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 89° | 90° | 86° | 82° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 89° | 90° | 85° | 82° | 93° | 86° | 88° | 82–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 90° | 90° | 86° | 91° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 86–93° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.