Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Mon Sep 14?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 92° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 105° against the PHX observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.8°. UKMO ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 107° | — | — | 109° | — | — | 107–109° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 99° | 96° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 95–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 92° | 94° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 89° | 82° | — | 99° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 111° | 87° | 94° | — | 98° | — | — | 87–111° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 98° | 94° | 83° | — | 102° | — | — | 83–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 97° | 98° | 91° | — | 96° | — | — | 91–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 100° | 94° | 96° | 102° | 102° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 97° | 102° | 91° | 106° | 100° | — | — | 91–106° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 99° | 103° | 100° | 108° | 101° | 87° | — | 87–108° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 101° | 98° | 103° | 87° | 102° | 91° | 102° | 87–103° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 100° | 96° | 100° | 104° | 103° | 92° | 105° | 92–105° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 95° | 95° | 104° | 104° | 99° | 92° | 103° | 92–104° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 92° | 103° | 102° | 99° | 95° | 101° | 92–103° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 97° | 95° | 102° | 102° | 104° | 98° | 102° | 95–104° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 100° | 100° | 103° | 103° | 101° | 100° | 99° | 99–103° |
| actual | 105° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.