Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Mon Aug 31?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
12 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 104° to 108°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 91° against the PHX observations, with 0.16 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-19 | 105° | 104° | 108° | — | 105° | — | — | 104–108° |
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 98° | 95° | 107° | — | 109° | — | — | 95–109° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 104° | 102° | 113° | — | 110° | — | — | 102–113° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 104° | 104° | 112° | 106° | 109° | — | — | 104–112° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 98° | 102° | 105° | 104° | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 97° | 102° | 90° | 99° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 98° | 96° | 93° | 103° | 102° | 97° | 93–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 97° | 96° | 104° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 106° | 95–106° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 96° | 98° | 93° | 97° | 101° | 102° | 106° | 93–106° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 95° | 99° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 105° | 94–105° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 94° | 93° | 86° | 98° | 89° | 100° | 86–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 89° | 92° | 92° | 97° | 100° | 90° | 91° | 89–100° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.