Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sat Aug 15?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 86° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 105°. The day verified at 108° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 106° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 97–106° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 86° | 103° | 103° | — | 101° | — | — | 86–103° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 100° | 95° | 104° | — | 105° | — | — | 95–105° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 102° | 101° | 93° | — | 106° | — | — | 93–106° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 99° | 105° | 94° | — | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 97° | 101° | 105° | — | 103° | — | — | 97–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 96° | 102° | 108° | 105° | 104° | — | — | 96–108° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 101° | 100° | 105° | 104° | 106° | — | — | 100–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 106° | 103° | 104° | 102° | 105° | — | — | 102–106° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 107° | 103° | 107° | 104° | 104° | 101° | 105° | 101–107° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 101° | 104° | 103° | 104° | 104° | 103° | 106° | 101–106° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 103° | 101° | 104° | 104° | 104° | 100° | 104° | 100–104° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 102° | 102° | 104° | 103° | 104° | 102° | 100° | 100–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 105° | 103° | 105° | 102° | 105° | 103° | 100° | 100–105° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 105° | 104° | 105° | 104° | 106° | 106° | 104° | 104–106° |
| actual | 108° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.