Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Tue Aug 11?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 88° to 104°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 104°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 98° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 98–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 101° | 96° | — | 104° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 102° | 106° | 99° | — | 106° | — | — | 99–106° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 100° | 100° | — | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 96° | 102° | — | 104° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 99° | 102° | — | 102° | — | — | 99–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 98° | 104° | 97° | 108° | 101° | — | — | 97–108° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 100° | 106° | 104° | 104° | 102° | — | — | 100–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 103° | 104° | 105° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 98–105° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 103° | 105° | 107° | 101° | 102° | 92° | 96° | 92–107° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 103° | 104° | 104° | 103° | 103° | 90° | 98° | 90–104° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 100° | 102° | 102° | 93° | 103° | 97° | 100° | 93–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 101° | 101° | 101° | 96° | 104° | 100° | 103° | 96–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 103° | 103° | 105° | 105° | 106° | 102° | 107° | 102–107° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 103° | 102° | 105° | 104° | 104° | 104° | 105° | 102–105° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.