Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sun Aug 2?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 5 models put Phoenix's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 110° to 113°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 115°. The day verified at 114° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 113° | 110° | 112° | 111° | 111° | — | — | 110–113° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 112° | 114° | 114° | 113° | 110° | 116° | 113° | 110–116° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 113° | 112° | 113° | 113° | 110° | 112° | 115° | 110–115° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 114° | 113° | 115° | 114° | 111° | 114° | 115° | 111–115° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 115° | 112° | 116° | 111° | 112° | 115° | 116° | 111–116° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 114° | 111° | 116° | 114° | 111° | 116° | 117° | 111–117° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 113° | 112° | 115° | 115° | 112° | 115° | 116° | 112–116° |
| actual | 114° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.