Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Jul 30?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
4 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 109° to 114°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 112°. The day verified at 113° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-26 | 112° | 111° | 114° | 112° | 109° | 113° | 114° | 109–114° |
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 113° | 110° | 114° | 112° | 110° | 113° | 116° | 110–116° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 112° | 110° | 113° | 112° | 109° | 112° | 112° | 109–113° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 113° | 110° | 113° | 111° | 113° | 112° | 111° | 110–113° |
| actual | 113° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.