Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sat Oct 17?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 55° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 63° against the PHL observations, with 0.16 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 57° | — | — | 55° | — | — | 55–57° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 56° | 55° | — | 58° | — | — | 55–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 69° | 63° | 71° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 71° | 59° | 77° | — | 77° | — | — | 59–77° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 56° | 58° | 53° | — | 67° | — | — | 53–67° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 70° | 59° | — | 80° | — | — | 59–80° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 63° | 70° | 68° | 62° | 83° | — | — | 62–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 59° | 67° | 58° | 63° | 66° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 68° | 56° | 66° | 71° | — | — | 56–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 54° | 55° | 55° | 55° | 53° | 54° | 57° | 53–57° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 61° | 54° | 53° | 62° | 61° | 53–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 59° | 62° | 60° | 61° | 63° | 63° | 59–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 63° | 66° | 64° | 60° | 67° | 67° | 60–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 61° | 64° | 65° | 62° | 66° | 66° | 61–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 63° | 65° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 65° | 63–66° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.