Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Fri Oct 16?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 56° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 77° against the PHL observations, with 0.23 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 56° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 56–74° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 67° | 56° | 71° | — | 70° | — | — | 56–71° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 53° | 70° | — | 80° | — | — | 53–80° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 65° | 57° | 79° | — | 63° | — | — | 57–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 66° | 68° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 56° | 68° | 54° | — | 67° | — | — | 54–68° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 66° | 69° | 57° | 68° | 77° | — | — | 57–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 69° | 82° | 71° | 71° | 76° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 61° | 72° | 57° | 75° | 66° | — | — | 57–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 75° | 67° | 60° | 74° | 73° | 79° | 60° | 60–79° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 69° | 76° | 77° | 69° | 80° | 71° | 64° | 64–80° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 72° | 81° | 77° | 81° | 73° | 78° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 76° | 72° | 81° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 72–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 77° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 76° | 77° | 81° | 77° | 80° | 78° | 76° | 76–81° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.