Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Wed Oct 14?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 63° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 80° against the PHL observations, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 63° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 63–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 66° | 63° | — | 69° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 53° | 60° | 79° | — | 69° | — | — | 53–79° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 57° | 52° | 62° | — | 83° | — | — | 52–83° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 57° | 62° | — | 73° | — | — | 57–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 51° | 80° | — | 61° | — | — | 51–80° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 64° | 80° | 68° | 71° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 72° | 69° | 76° | 64° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 73° | 76° | 59° | 78° | 62° | — | — | 59–78° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 79° | 79° | 62° | 82° | 75° | 68° | 68° | 62–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 78° | 80° | 74° | 70° | 81° | 70° | 70–83° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 85° | 81° | 79° | 79° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 79–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 84° | 83° | 78° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 84° | 82° | 85° | 81° | 81° | 79° | 79–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 86° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 78–86° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.