Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Tue Oct 13?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 60° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 81° against the PHL observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 63° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 63–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 60° | 64° | 78° | — | 64° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 67° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 75° | 78° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 66° | 80° | — | 83° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 74° | 64° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 68° | 77° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 66° | 71° | 76° | 70° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 85° | 78° | 77° | 74° | 74° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 84° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 81° | 66° | 75° | 66–84° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 79° | 73° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 73–79° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 78° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 74–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 74° | 77° | 74° | 76° | 79° | 75° | 74–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 80° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 78° | 79° | 73° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 73–80° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.