Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Mon Oct 12?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 63° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 74° against the PHL observations, with 0.25 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 62° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 62–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 63° | 67° | 70° | — | 68° | — | — | 63–70° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 65° | 78° | 77° | — | 70° | — | — | 65–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 72° | 75° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 73° | 69° | — | 82° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 78° | 69° | — | 83° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 71° | 75° | 73° | 66° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 74° | 72° | 75° | 63° | — | — | 63–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 66° | 71° | 68° | 72° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 77° | 68° | 75° | 65° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 65–77° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 73° | 67° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 76° | 72° | 67–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 62° | 71° | 70° | 64° | 71° | 71° | 62–71° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 71° | 68° | 74° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 73° | 68–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 73° | 69° | 74° | 70° | 74° | 72° | 72° | 69–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 73° | 70° | 74° | 71° | 75° | 73° | 74° | 70–75° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.