Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sun Oct 11?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 57° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 65° against the PHL observations, with 1.84 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 71° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 64° | 57° | 58° | — | 60° | — | — | 57–64° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 75° | 62° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 84° | 71° | 77° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 79° | 70° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 75° | 66° | 74° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 75° | 76° | 80° | 73° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 67° | 72° | 78° | 71° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 69° | 72° | 76° | 69° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 70° | 70° | 76° | 70° | 64° | 73° | 73° | 64–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 72° | 65° | 68° | 73° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 65–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 65° | 70° | 69° | 64° | 66° | 64° | 64–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 67° | 63° | 66° | 68° | 64° | 66° | 63° | 63–68° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 65° | 67° | 68° | 64° | 67° | 66° | 64–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 64–67° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.