Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Tue Oct 6?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 64° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 65° against the PHL observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 55° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 55–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 79° | 65° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 65–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 66° | 70° | 67° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 62° | 81° | 64° | — | 73° | — | — | 62–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 69° | 76° | 60° | — | 82° | — | — | 60–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 62° | 62° | — | 65° | — | — | 62–66° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 65° | 64° | 75° | 67° | 66° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 59° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 66° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 60° | 60° | 58° | 64° | 60° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 60° | 61° | 60° | 60° | 60° | 61° | 61° | 60–61° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 64° | 66° | 60–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 64° | 63° | 63° | 61° | 63° | 63° | 61° | 61–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 63° | 66° | 65° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 63° | 62° | 62–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 63° | 62° | 63° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 62–64° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.