Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Mon Oct 5?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 60° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 73° against the PHL observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 74° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 74–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 60° | 75° | — | 76° | — | — | 60–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 63° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 73° | 68° | 73° | — | 69° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 68° | 80° | 65° | — | 85° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 70° | 63° | — | 85° | — | — | 63–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 72° | 64° | 67° | 73° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 72° | 68° | 67° | 66° | 58° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 69° | 69° | 67° | 68° | 67° | — | — | 67–69° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 73° | 66° | 70° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 65° | 64–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 69° | 72° | 63° | 72° | 69° | 71° | 63–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 70° | 68° | 67° | 74° | 68° | 69° | 67–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 72° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 72° | 69° | 69–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 70° | 69° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 68° | 68–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 69° | 69–73° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.