Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sun Oct 4?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 68° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 64° against the PHL observations, with 0.12 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 61° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 70° | 68° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 71° | 72° | 77° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 68° | 66° | 76° | — | 83° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 75° | 65° | 70° | — | 73° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 62° | 81° | 87° | — | 82° | — | — | 62–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 65° | 73° | 65° | 77° | 89° | — | — | 65–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 63° | 78° | 60° | 65° | 70° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 71° | 67° | 70° | 61° | 69° | — | — | 61–71° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 64° | 62° | 68° | 68° | 66° | 64° | 75° | 62–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 70° | 66° | 71° | 67° | 70° | 63° | 69° | 63–71° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 64° | 63° | 64° | 62° | 69° | 61° | 70° | 61–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 64° | 64° | 64° | 70° | 65° | 63° | 66° | 63–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 66° | 63° | 66° | 64° | 65° | 63° | 65° | 63–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 64° | 62° | 65° | 67° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 62–67° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.