Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Fri Oct 2?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 70° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the PHL observations, with 0.18 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 66° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 75° | 78° | 70° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 60° | 72° | — | 70° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 74° | 78° | 77° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 80° | 76° | 78° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 77° | 68° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 77° | 74° | 82° | 76° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 87° | 79° | 74° | 82° | 82° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 74° | 84° | 73° | 80° | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 79° | 87° | 78° | 86° | 80° | 76° | 75° | 75–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 89° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 88° | 81° | 76° | 76–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 84° | 84–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 88° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 83° | 82–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 88° | 85° | 83° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 87° | 85° | 83° | 80° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 80–87° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.