Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Thu Oct 1?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 69° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the PHL observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.3°. ICON ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 68° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 70° | 71° | 69° | — | 74° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 74° | 68° | — | 72° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 76° | 62° | 74° | — | 70° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 79° | 72° | — | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 78° | 83° | 73° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 81° | 84° | 78° | 83° | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 79° | 78° | 80° | 84° | 72° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 84° | 78° | 81° | 83° | 81° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 85° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 82° | 78° | 75° | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 84° | 83° | 79° | 81° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 79–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 84° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 85° | 80° | 81° | 80–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 83° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 78° | 81° | 78–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 82° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 74° | 75° | 81° | 74–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 79–82° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.