Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Fri Sep 18?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 69° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 87° against the PHL observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 81° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | — | 74° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 69° | 83° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 84° | 80° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 79° | 72° | 80° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 92° | 84° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 89° | 83° | 80° | — | 81° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 88° | 80° | 74° | 72° | 74° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 77° | 79° | 79° | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 85° | 87° | 88° | 79° | 78° | — | 78–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 82° | 70° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 76° | 81° | 70–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 82° | 84° | 82–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 86° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 80° | 84° | 80–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 85° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 82–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 84° | 86° | 83° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 83–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 86° | 82° | 85° | 82° | 79° | 84° | 84° | 79–86° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.