Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Thu Sep 10?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 77° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the PHL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 70° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 82° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 87° | 81° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 87° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 76° | 81° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 74° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 73° | 100° | — | 91° | — | — | 73–100° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 94° | 89° | 93° | 86° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 90° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 89° | 83° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 89° | 95° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 88° | 86–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 86° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 84–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 83° | 92° | 89° | 79° | 85° | 86° | 79–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 86° | 89° | 87° | 79° | 81° | 83° | 79–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 88° | 87° | 89° | 89° | 78° | 84° | 87° | 78–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 89° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 86–90° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.