Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Wed Sep 9?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 80° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 89° against the PHL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 79° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 93° | 91° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 91° | 84° | 100° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 80° | 98° | — | 85° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 81° | 82° | — | 89° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 78° | 99° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 84° | 74° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 86° | 88° | 84° | 83° | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 82° | 81° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 87° | 81–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 88° | 90° | 87° | 82–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 83–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 86° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 85° | 87° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 86° | 85–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 85° | 87° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 87° | 85–89° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.